Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis of Ice-Free Operating Area in the Barents Sea Using a Stochastic Model

Under climate change, the Barents Sea—a marginal sea of the Arctic Ocean—is undergoing ‘Atlanticization’, leading to an expansion of ice-free marine areas accessible for resource exploitation and commercial navigation. This study used multiyear sea ice data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center to analyze sea ice melting and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the ice-free operating area in the Barents Sea. It conducted quantitative analyses using Mann–Kendall trend testing and Pettitt’s mutation test. Results showed a substantial downward trend in the overall sea ice extent, with a 2004 change point. Post-2005, sea ice coverage experienced a marked contraction, the ice duration shortened considerably, and sea ice concentrations dropped close to zero across the entire region from July to September. Such shifts implied adjustments to the timing and extent of the ice-free operations. An estimation and prediction model incorporating data decomposition and probabilistic analysis was built to quantify the spatiotemporal extent of ice-free operations in the Barents Sea. This model accounted for both climate change trends, effectively simulating the data characteristics of ice-free onset and duration. Based on the projections of the model for the 2023–2035 period, the analysis forecast a modest expansion of ice-free zones, accompanied by a substantial prolongation of ice-free durations within these regions.