Stratigraphic Forward Modeling of Late Quaternary Fluvial Dynamics in the Indus River Delta, Pakistan: Insights into Sea Level-Driven Sedimentary Evolution

Fluvial systems play a crucial role in coastal and riverine ecosystems, making it essential to understand their responses to sea level changes for preserving biodiversity and managing natural resources. The evolution of the modern Indus River Delta offers a rare opportunity to study the interplay between sea level fluctuations, tectonism, sediment supply, and the corresponding fluvial responses. This study employs the ‘SedSim’ stratigraphic forward model to simulate the delta’s evolution from 200 kyr to the next 5 kyr, drawing on data from field observations, Landsat imagery, digital elevation models, and previous studies. The model consists of 205 layers, each representing a 1-kyr time step, covering the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Between 200 kyr and 130 kyr, during a lowstand period, sedimentation on the delta plain continued due to partial flow from the Indus River. During the last interglacial (130–60 kyr), rising sea levels led to peak sediment deposition, characteristic of a highstand phase. From 60 kyr to 18 kyr, sea levels dropped to their lowest during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), resulting in extensive erosion and minimal deposition on the delta plain. From 18 kyr to the present, rapidly rising sea levels, coupled with intensified monsoon activity, increased sedimentation rates and triggered avulsion and aggradation processes. The model accurately predicted depositional thickness across the delta plain, indicating a maximum of ca. 200 m at the shoreline platform, ca. 175 m in the northeastern delta, and ca. 100 m in the central delta. The study underscores the delta’s vulnerability to future sea level rise, which–at a projected rate of 1 m/kyr–could significantly influence the densely populated, low-lying delta plain. These findings offer valuable insights into the geomorphic evolution of the Indus Delta and emphasize the socioeconomic implications of sea level change, underscoring the importance of proactive management and adaptation strategies.