Trend of Storm Surge Induced by Typical Landfall Super Typhoons During 1975 – 2021 in the Eastern China Sea

Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones (TCs). Among all TCs, typical super typhoons (STYs) are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties, economic losses, and environmental damage. Using a 3D tidal model, we reconstructed the typhoon (TY) wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs. The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data. Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific (WNP) Basin, with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021. A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea (ECS). Along the coast of EC, the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend, and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August. Zhejiang, Fujian, and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs. Affected by climate change, the average lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend. In addition, the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend, indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk. Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS, the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration, and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.